I'll translate an entry in the blog Gaussianos ("Gaussians") about Polya's conjecture, titled:
A BELIEF IS NOT A PROOF.
We'll say a number is of even kind if in its prime factorization, an even amountnumber of primes appear. For example $6 = 2\cdot 3$ is a number of even kind. And we'll say a number is of odd kind if the number of primes in its factorization is odd. For example, $18 = 2·3·3$ is of odd kind. ($1$ is considered of even kind).
Let $n$ be any natural number. We'll consider the following numbers:
- $E(n) =$ number of positive integers less or equal to $n$ that are of even kind.
- $O(n) =$ number of positive integers less or equal to $n$ that are of odd kind.
Let's consider $n=7$. In this case $O(7) = 4$ (number 2, 3, 5 and 7 itself) and $E(7) = 3$ ( 1, 4 and 6). So $O(7) >E(7)$.
For $n = 6$: $O(6) = 3$ and $E(6) = 3$. Thus $O(6) = E(6)$.
In 1919 George Polya proposed the following result, know as Polya's Conjecture:
For all $n > 2$, $O(n)$ is greater than or equal to $E(n)$.
Polya had checked this for $n < 1500$. In the following years this was tested up to $n=1000000$, which is a reason why the conjecture might be thought to be true. But that is wrong.
In 1962, Lehman found an explicit counterexample: for $n = 906180359$, we have $O(n) = E(n) – 1$, so:
$$O(906180359) < E(906180359).$$
By an exhaustive search, the smallest counterexample is $n = 906150257$, found by Tanaka in 1980.
Thus Polya's Conjecture is false.
What do we learn from this? Well, it is simple: unfortunately in mathematics we cannot trust intuition or what happens for a finite number of cases, no matter how large the number is. Until the result is proved for the general case, we have no certainty that it is true.