Barclays Investment Bank

Leading companies at our #BarcTech conference made one thing clear: the digital era is entering a new phase. The conversations are showcasing a sector preparing for a new standard of innovation – a more secure, connected digital world powered by AI.   Cc: Fortinet, NXP Semiconductors, CrowdStrike

Was the UK #AutumnBudget a success or shortfall? In the latest episode of The Flip Side podcast, our Global Head of Research, Brad Rogoff, calls it a short-term success: the Chancellor calmed markets, built fiscal headroom, and shielded households from extra financial pressure - all with positive market reactions and no immediate hit to growth. Meanwhile, UK Chief Economist Jack Meaning, is more cautious, warning that backloaded tax rises and delayed fiscal pain cast doubt on long-term sustainability. Two perspectives, one big debate. Where do you stand? 🤔 🎧 Listen now: http://ms.spr.ly/6048ti1MO

💡Agentic AI could deliver $80bn of productivity gains in the energy sector by 2030. In Episode 10 of Barclays Brief, Lydia Rainforth explains to Patrick Coffey the tangible benefits of agentic AI adoption for energy companies: faster exploration, smarter operations and predictive maintenance using drones and robots. They also discuss how ready the sector is to scale agentic AI, what good looks like, and how investors can tell the potential winners from the laggards. 🎧 Listen now: http://ms.spr.ly/6043t9vnT

The 2025 Extel Global Fixed-Income survey results are in and our analysts delivered another standout performance. Congratulations to our Research analysts for being recognized for their excellence and leadership across Fixed Income and thank you to our clients for their continued partnership.

Congratulations to IBM on entering into a definitive agreement to acquire Confluent for an enterprise value of $11 Billion. Confluent provides a leading open-source enterprise data streaming platform that connects, processes and governs reusable and reliable data and events in real time, foundational for the deployment of AI. We are proud to act as Financial Advisor to IBM.

It’s the time of year when everyone is a publishing an outlook, but credit spent most of 2025 behaving as if it wasn’t going to be interesting.   However, that complacency is giving way to some potential volatility as we approach 2026. The late-cycle signals are getting louder: AI-driven capex is set to trigger a sharp supply surge, valuations are sitting near historical tights, and animal spirits are returning in ways that could reshape risk premia.   On Bloomberg’s Credit Edge podcast, we dug into some of those themes from our Global Credit Outlook that I believe matter most for the year ahead.   ▪️Late-cycle extension, not late-cycle end. Solid macro, but with enough uncertainty – AI investment, tariffs, policy shifts – to keep dispersion elevated. ▪️Supply is about to surge. Net supply in IG alone could swing from -10% in 2025 to +40% in 2026, driven by AI-linked capex, M&A and late-cycle financing needs. ▪️Valuations are tight everywhere. Most markets priced near historical lows in spread and asymmetrically skewed. ▪️Demand still anchored by yield, but vulnerable. Further declines in US IG yields could soften appetite at the wrong moment.   🎧 Listen to the full conversation on Credit Edge: https://lnkd.in/e59uMaY5 📘 Clients can read the full Global Credit Outlook on Barclays Live.

As we head into Q1 2026, the global economy is moving at the speed of #AI. Our latest Global Outlook breaks down how the AI boom, China's tech push and Europe's resilience mean the current market expansion has room to run. Read our Q1 26 Global Outlook for insights on what's ahead 👉 http://ms.spr.ly/6043tXtrt

Two stages. One theme: debt capital markets are entering a new phase of opportunity and complexity. Meghan Graper, our Global Head of Debt Capital Markets, shared her perspective on two influential stages last week – Reuters NEXT and Bloomberg Intelligence – offering a clear read on how issuers and investors should be positioning ahead of a pivotal year for debt markets. Across both panels, she outlined how the evolving rate environment, the path of central bank policy, and the shifting investment grade credit landscape are influencing corporate funding decisions. She noted that while volatility remains a constant, the market is setting up for a period defined by front-loaded issuance, more yield driven demand and selective risk-taking in the context of solid credit fundamentals. She also highlighted how AI-driven investment cycles are accelerating, with hyperscalers expanding compute capacity and utilities preparing for significant power-demand growth – trends that could drive a notable increase in tech-related financings, reshape IG supply dynamics, create opportunities across public and private markets, and widen the opportunity set for relative-value strategies. Her overarching message: Issuers will need to stay nimble, and investors who can differentiate between structural and cyclical credit stories will be well-positioned as new supply comes to market.

Global economic forces to 👀 for the week of 8 December, according to our Research team 👇 After much AI-related market turbulence, central bank decisions are back in focus, with the Fed likely delivering a hawkish cut this week. Our Research analysts now expect the BoJ to hike next week, while the BoE is on course to cut. This week also brings China's CEWC conference and inflation and trade data. ◾ US: With the data curing the cement on another Fed rate cut this week, the focus switches to December's updated FOMC dot plot and forward guidance. With the latest risk management cuts running their course, our Research analysts expect a reintroduction of "extent and timing" language to signal a January pause. ◾ Euro area: Stronger real GDP growth in Q3, inflation hovering near target and somewhat firmer wage dynamics should leave the ECB confident in keeping rates on hold. In France, Prime Minister Lecornu faces a key test with a crucial vote this week. ◾ United Kingdom: The Bank of England reduced the capital ratio required by banks, but this does not change our Research team’s expectations for lending or growth in the coming quarters. Surveys continue to point to weak employment while wage and price expectations remain robust. ◾ Japan: Governor Ueda has expressed confidence in wage talks and – perhaps also considering snap election prospects – clearly stated that a rate hike will be on the table in December. At the same time, he said he would like to clarify the BoJ's thinking on the neutral interest rate with the next hike. ◾ China: The miss in manufacturing PMIs points to weak domestic demand, while the rebound in new export orders and shipping data suggest exports remain strong. The fall in services PMI – for the first time since late 2022 – is worrisome. Markets will watch the CEWC for more cues on 2026 policy directions. https://lnkd.in/ej3Zv4qH

We are honored to be recognized as Credit Derivatives House of the Year at the Risk Awards 2026, a testament to the strong relationships we’ve built with clients and the continued strength of our credit franchise and investments we’ve made to serve clients with even greater scale and consistency. As part of this recognition, leaders from across our Credit Products team contributed to a Risk.Net feature profiling the architecture of our credit platform – including the adoption of a centralized risk book, allowing us to manage risk holistically, hedge multi-dimensional exposures more efficiently and deliver a broader suite of cash and derivatives solutions for clients. Read the full article for a more detailed view on how our leaders are thinking about the future of credit markets and how we’re evolving our capabilities to enhance the stability and scalability of our credit franchise: https://lnkd.in/efXzRji3