International Trade Policy Awareness

On the eve of the US #presidential #election, here's what international businesses exposed to US #trade, investment, and #industrial policy should consider: 1. Policy continuity may be greater than expected. Biden maintained Trump's China tariffs – which Biden policies might persist? Campaign rhetoric often differs from governing reality. 2. Implementation timelines matter. Even "day one" changes wouldn't take effect until late January 2025. Congressional approvals for could take months or fail entirely. Same for nominations for top federal jobs--the next president's team won't have their feet under the desks for a while. The US system's deliberate friction works as a buffer and a source of delay. The danger here is that executives focus on the "here and now" and put off considering emergent policy dynamics. 3. Proposed aggressive measures like higher import tariffs typically require investigations and trigger government-to-government negotiations. Exemptions may be available, as they were under Trump's first term. This creates unwanted uncertainty but also opportunities for savvy firms to advance their interests through non-market strategy. 4. Key decision points are already scheduled: Congress must address the 2017 tax cuts, and 2026 brings the USMCA trade agreement review. Forward-looking firms should prepare for these--especially if your company has large operations in Mexico that sell into the US market. 5. Screen out much of the political chaos and focus on your fundamentals. Analyze your exposure systematically under different policy assumptions. Which changes would create million, ten-million, hundred-million, or billion dollar impacts? In the very near term, one differentiator will be how effectively organizations deploy internal expertise and external advisors to track policy developments and granularly assess business unit impacts. Thorough exposure analysis is key. Augment insight from high-quality media with granular information on policy change and practice. IMD David Bach Stefan Michel Richard Baldwin Michael Dounaev Global Trade Alert St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade Johannes Fritz Delia Fischer [she/her] Nikolaus S. Lang Cristián H. Rodríguez-Chiffelle Marc Gilbert Dr Alexis Crow World Economic Forum Trade & Investment Sean Doherty Simon Lacey Anabel González Adam Posen Sean Lloyd Tiago Devesa Karen Harris Felipe Amoroso Manzano Moncef Tanfour George Riddell Sam Lowe Ken Levinson Tiffany Smith Jake Colvin

The 2024 Hinrich-IMD Sustainable Trade Index (STI) offers a rich perspective on how countries are balancing economic growth, societal well-being, and environmental stewardship within the framework of global trade. Here some of my reflections on the report: 1- 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞: The report highlights resilience as a guiding principle, especially post-pandemic, where concerns around health crises, climate change, and geopolitical shifts have intensified. This resonates with my own understanding that sustainable trade isn’t just about economic gains; it’s about building systems that can withstand shocks. 2-𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐭 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐧𝐯𝐢𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭: The STI points out a growing trend towards protectionist policies and how this affects the global flow of goods and services. While protectionism aims to strengthen domestic industries, it also risks creating silos that may hinder the collaborative efforts needed to address #climate change. From a sustainability perspective, this shift is concerning, as global challenges like carbon emissions and pollution require collective action. 3-𝐒𝐨𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞 𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐄𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: The STI’s focus on #workforce resilience is a powerful reminder that a society’s well-being directly impacts its #economic #health. For example, Universal Health Coverage is a new indicator in the STI, recognizing that accessible healthcare is foundational for societal #resilience. I find this particularly important, as a healthy, educated workforce is essential for sustainable development. 4-𝐄𝐧𝐯𝐢𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐀𝐜𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐬: The report underscores the critical role of environmental stewardship within trade. It’s encouraging to see countries making strides in environmental commitments, as tracked by the STI, but it’s also a reminder that more needs to be done. The integration of environmental metrics into trade policies is something I believe should be the norm, not the exception. It aligns with the idea that sustainability should be embedded at all levels, including international trade. 5-𝐀 𝐁𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞: The STI serves as a benchmark for economies striving for a sustainable balance between growth and #environmental responsibility. It shows that the path to #sustainable #trade requires intentional, data-driven strategies that consider societal and environmental impacts alongside economic outcomes. The report is a compelling resource worth the read for anyone aiming to align trade practices with sustainability goals. It echoes the necessity for innovative thinking and a collaborative approach to foster resilience and environmental responsibility in the global trade landscape.

Is Global Trade Under Siege? Navigating Growing Threats in a Turbulent World Trade, the lifeblood of our interconnected world, faces mounting challenges. From rising protectionism to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, the stability and openness of the global trading system are at risk. This International Monetary Fund (IMF) report dives deep into the growing threats. Here's a glimpse: Protectionist policies: Trade walls and barriers threaten to fragment markets, impede competition, and ultimately harm consumers. Geopolitical tensions: Escalating conflicts and mistrust create uncertainty and disrupt trade flows. Supply chain disruptions: Pandemics, climate change, and other factors can cause bottlenecks and shortages, impacting businesses and consumers worldwide. These threats are real, but we have the power to mitigate them! The IMF calls for: Cooperation and dialogue: Open communication and collaborative solutions are crucial to overcoming differences and fostering trust. Policy reforms: Modernizing trade rules and promoting transparency can create a more stable and resilient trading system. Investing in resilience: Building robust infrastructure, diversifying supply chains, and strengthening economic cooperation are key to weathering future shocks. Let's join the conversation! What are your biggest concerns about the future of global trade? What can governments, businesses, and individuals do to address these challenges? Share examples of successful initiatives promoting a more open and sustainable trading system. #GlobalTrade #TradeChallenges #Protectionism #Geopolitics #SupplyChains #IMFreports #FutureofTrade

In a globalised world 🌍 every trade decision has the potential to trigger a chain effect. A recently published policy brief, part of our Territorial Development Insights Series, unravels EU vulnerabilities and dependencies at three levels (EU, national and territorial). By using the JRC-developed CARMEN model, which allows for a wide range of policy relevant impact analyses at territorial and industrial level, our analysis concluded that in recent years: 1️⃣China accounted for around 18-27% of the foreign value added incorporated in the EU exports to US of: motor vehicles, machinery & equipment, and computer & electronics. 2️⃣Germany and France alone cumulated more than half of the total Chinese value added content in the EU exports to US. Other countries, such as Estonia or Hungary, showed high relative dependence levels. 3️⃣Six regions accumulate 50% of the Chinese value added content of EU exports to US: Stuttgart and Upper Bavaria (Germany), Ile-de-France (France), North Brabant (Netherlands) and the Southern, and Eastern and Midland regions (Ireland). Our findings aim to support ‘Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships’, as stated in the EU political guidelines, by informing upcoming preferential trade agreements and investment partnerships in order to achieve the goals of the upcoming Clean Industry Deal. In this same line, we aim to help prioritising trade policy actions to enhance EU competitiveness, reinforce Europe’s strategic autonomy, while reinforcing EU trade mechanisms with like-minded partners. Read the whole policy brief: https://lnkd.in/d9bdyek2 EU Science, Research and Innovation Mikel Landabaso Paolo Canfora Verónica Romero Maria Marquez Marta Rey Ruiz Miguel Querol José Manuel Rueda Cantuche Daria Ciriaci Luis Enrique Pedauga PhD Economics, CQRM Alba Catalan Piera Luis A. Galiano Bastarrica Santacruz Banacloche Sánchez Valeria Ferreira Gregorio Jorge López Margherita Bacigalupo Andrea Conte

What do I see as some of the main trade related issues #Barbados & other SIDS will have to face in 2025? See my interview with Nation News Business Authority 5 questions. - For small open economies like Barbados and other island states, trade is the lifeblood of our economy and our development. But the current international trade landscape is challenging. Headwinds remain and despite the better than anticipated forecast from the WTO which projected an increase in global goods trade of 2.7% in 2024, and 3.0% in 2025; and an even more favorable services trade increase, the rising geopolitical tensions and possible economic policy divergences create real risks for global trade security. -The successful Barbados and UNCTAD hosted Global Supply Chain Conference in 2024 highlighted how vulnerable countries like Barbados are to external disruptions. We saw this with the impact of geopolitics on shipping lanes and supply chains and increasingly we will see climate change related impacts like that which occurred in the Panama Canal this year with low water levels affecting passage of cargo. The impact of global tensions and conflict will also continue to potentially affect price sensitive commodities like fuel, and grains. -Of course there is also another important dimension: potential economic policy incoherence that could lead to the world bracing for more protectionism. Protectionist policies are like kryptonite to small economies like Barbados that often don’t have the deep pockets to subsidize uncompetitive or nascent industries and sectors and also lack the economic muscle to confront larger countries enacting protectionist policies. One of the greatest ironies of the multilateral trading system is that it is often the smallest and most economically vulnerable that abide by the global trade rules. The absence of a working and legitimate appellate body arm in the WTO’s dispute settlement arsenal makes this even more dangerous. -invest in multilateralism and in global institutions like the WTO, the UN, the WHO, the ILO and others where countries like Barbados have a seat at the table & possibility to influence global policy and hold others to account. -At the WTO we have 2 potential agreements waiting in the wings: the Fisheries Subsidies Agreement which will be the WTO’s first ever sustainability focused agreement; and the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement which has the potential to streamline the process of global investment. Both of these agreements will have positive impacts on countries like Barbados Read more ⬇️ Barbados Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade World Trade Organization (WTO) UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Intellectual Property Organization – WIPO Secretariat of the Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS) International Trade Centre Shridath Ramphal Centre for Int'l Trade Law, Policy and Services https://lnkd.in/e7_CkGYM

Over the past few weeks, I’ve had conversations with clients across Europe, the Middle East, South America, and Africa (EMESA) who are navigating the new era of #trade policy uncertainty. It’s clear that trade policy is no longer a background factor: It’s center stage—and boardroom critical. And while the headlines might focus on China and the US, the ripple effects are already hitting businesses in our region: from pricing pressures to supply chain reconfigurations. What’s clear: businesses can’t afford to wait and see. - Companies must assess where they’re exposed—product by product, market by market. - They need a “tariff command center”—an agile team that can scenario-plan and act fast. - And above all, they must build geopolitical muscle: the ability to respond strategically to shocks that may not follow past patterns. At Boston Consulting Group (BCG), we’ve been working side-by-side with clients across EMESA to navigate this uncertainty—not with panic, but with clarity and readiness. Our latest article breaks down the EU’s phased approach and how companies can respond: https://lnkd.in/eA7Sf8h2 Here’s my key takeaway for you to keep in mind: #Resilience is no longer a luxury. It’s a necessity.