The news: A new study shows that Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug is more effective than Novo Nordisk's oral diabetes drug for type 2 patients.

• Lilly's pill, orforglipron, helped patients lose 9.2% of their weight, which is significantly more than the 5.3% lost by those taking Novo Nordisk's pill.
• For context: The study compared Lilly’s candidate with Novo’s older, lower dose 14-mg GLP-1 pill Rybelsus approved only for diabetes.

Novo more recently touted its own clinical study for its higher-dose 25-mg pill, which is currently under FDA review as “Wegovy pill.” The study revealed an average 16.6% weight loss among patients. That’s on par with Wegovy’s injectable version.

Why it matters: Lilly and Novo are vying to be the first to launch needle-free GLP-1 pills for weight loss.

• Novo submitted an FDA application for approval of the high-dose Wegovy pill in May and expects a decision in Q4.
• Lilly’s orforglipron pill trials are completed, but it hasn’t filed for FDA approval yet. It previously said it plans to file this year, with a launch expected next year.

Yes, and: Analysts suggest Lilly might use a new Trump administration voucher to speed up the approval process for its pill, potentially cutting the review time from 10 to 12 months down to just 1 to 2 months.

Key stat: Weight loss pills are expected to capture 25% of the anti-obesity drug market by 2030, per Goldman Sachs.

Behind the numbers: GLP-1 injectables, and pending pills, show a range of weight loss results depending on patients and dosage levels. Type 2 diabetes patients, for example, typically lose less than people with obesity only. Marketers and agencies need to parse the data for consumers and physicians, and create clear and concise marketing that spells out results for specific target audiences.

Our take: In the race to be the first GLP-1 weight loss pill on the market, Lilly’s potential bid for an early voucher would put it on more competitive timing with Novo.

First-to-market is always an advantage with Rx drugs, but we think the bigger key to success is pricing. Consumers and payers are balking at current $500 to $1,000 per month injectable drug costs. With lower effectiveness rates, and cheaper upfront manufacturing, pills will likely be priced lower—but just how low will determine market success. A low-cost pill, paired with clear value messaging for distinct audience segments, will drive broader adoption and fuel sales growth.

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