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So given a probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{A}, P)$ and sub-$\sigma$-algebra $\mathcal{G}\subseteq\mathcal{A}$, consider the conditional probability $P(A|\mathcal{G})$ for any $A\in\mathcal{A}$. Now $P(A|\mathcal{G})$ has to satify

(i) that it is $\mathcal{G}$-measurable

(ii) That for all $G\in\mathcal{G}$ it holds: $$\int_G P(A|\mathcal{G})dP=P(A\cap G). $$

It is an import fact that $P(A|\mathcal{G})(\omega)$ need not be a probability measure for every $\omega\in\Omega$. My question is now if it even can fail to be a measure?

Billingsley in his book Probability and Measure seems to claim this in Problem 33.11, since he there writes: "The following construction shows that conditional probabilities may not give measures". However, then he goes to assume that $P(A|\mathcal{G})(\omega)$ is a probabiality measure for all $\omega\in\Omega$ and then creates a contradiction. So it seems that he only shows that $P(A|\mathcal{G})(\omega)$ need not be a probability measure for every $\omega\in\Omega$ (which is well known), but does not show that a conditional probability can even fail to be a measure. So do there exist conditional probabilities that even fail to be measures?

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    $\begingroup$ $P(A|\mathcal{G})$ is not even uniquely defined for every $\omega$. For $\omega$ in a null set, you can define it to be any function of $A$. $\endgroup$ Commented Oct 29 at 11:11
  • $\begingroup$ In the particular case that $\mathcal{G}$ is generated by a finite or countable partition $(G_i)_{i\in I}$ of $\Omega$, $P(A|\mathcal{G})$ is a linear combination of indicator functions $1_{G_i}$, which are projections. You may want to have a look at projection-valued measures or the more general positive operator valued measures, of which $P(A|\mathcal{G})$ is a special case. $\endgroup$ Commented Oct 29 at 14:19

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