Will we still be able to ski in Scotland in 2080?

Christopher BlanchettSenior weather presenter, BBC Scotland
Getty Images A skier dressed in red skiing gear going down a snowy slope. He is wearing a hat and ski goggles and is carrying poles. There is a cloud of snow behind him. Getty Images
The Lecht has been a favourite of skiers since the 1970s

For many keen skiers, the Scottish Highlands has been their winter playground for years - cheaper and more easily accessible than ski resorts overseas.

But guaranteed snow cover has become less reliable in recent years and the changing climate is giving those in the industry pause for thought.

The number of days with snow falling in Scotland has dropped by between 25 and 30% since the 1970s, according to Met Office snow expert Alex Priestley.

And he has warned that by 2080, there will be winters were we see no snow at all - even in the Scottish mountains.

It could have a devastating impact on Scottish ski resorts such as the Lecht Ski Centre, between Tomintoul and Cockbridge in the Cairngorms.

A favourite of snow sports enthusiasts since the 1970s, it was founded by entrepreneur James MacIntosh and today his daughter Annette Cockburn is at the helm.

Lecht Ski Centre A group of about 10 people on skis and carrying poles gather around a cake on the top of a ski slope. They are all dressed in quite old fashioned ski wear, which dates the image to the 70s or 80s. Lecht Ski Centre
The first birthday of the Lecht was celebrated on the slopes

She grew up steps away from the slopes and recalls fun memories of having a ski centre on her doorstep - a winter playground of epic proportions.

When the snow gates were shut, she would have the snow-covered mountains all to herself and of course every Christmas was white.

She told BBC Scotland's Landward programme: "It was great, this was my playground, we used to build igloos, go sledging, go skiing. It was a winter playground that not everybody had access to.

"You would think being here that you'd get a day off school if the road was closed, but no, my dad used to take us down to the snow gates to meet the school bus on a snow plough."

Annette Cockburn Annette Cockburn, who has ski goggles perched on top of her head, stands at the bottom of snow-covered ski slope. She is wrapped up in a blue scarf and a green jacket. She has blonde hair and is smiling at the camera in this selfieAnnette Cockburn
Annette Cockburn has grown up on the slopes at the Lecht

Today, snow is still front and centre in Annette's mind. Now though it comes with the perils of running a snow sport business in Scotland.

This autumn brought a promising start, with cold Arctic winds during the third week of November providing a few days of decent snowfall.

Wintry weather at this point in the year is not unusual, but the depth of cold meant Scotland recorded its coldest November night since 2010, with the temperature dipping to -12.6C at Tomintoul.

But Annette says the past couple of ski seasons have been "very poor". They would ideally be open from December until the Easter holidays.

"We haven't really had a lot of natural snow," she said.

"We've had teasers of natural snow, but it's never been quite enough for us to open a lot of our bigger lifts".

Lecht Ski Centre James MacIntosh stands in the snow, smiling at the camera. Behind him are several snow-covered ski slopes, busy with skiers. Lecht Ski Centre
James MacIntosh founded the Lecht ski centre, which thrived in the 1990s

Last season was one of the worst - the ski resort only opened for one weekend with natural snow.

While it has the ability to make snow itself, it is only enough to give a covering to a few of the smaller runs near the car park. And if the air and ground temperature isn't low enough, it's reluctant to stick around.

Running a seasonal business is tough, and when the star of the show becomes ever more reluctant to appear, the burden becomes apparent.

"It's been a real challenge, we can't guarantee employment, we can't guarantee that we'll still be here," Annette said.

"It's basic survival to see that we can make it through to the next winter season.

"Poor seasons you get a little bit...give us a break, we need some snow. It's hard to say positive sometimes.

"Hopefully we'll be here [to stay] and we'll have a good winter season this year".

The Met Office's Alex Priestley said the outlook was concerning.

"We will still see snow of course, we're still going to see day-to-day and year-to-year variations in our weather," he said.

"But with temperatures going up and up, the cold extremes are going to be less cold and the warm extremes are going to be warmer.

"Unfortunately, for those us who love snow we're going to see a lot of less of it.

"There will probably be winters by the 2080s or so when we see none at all, even in the Scottish mountains".

Alex Priestley, who has a short, stubbly beard. is wearing a red hooded puffer jacket underneath a red windcheater. He has a brown woollen hat on his head. He is standing in the hills under a grey sky. There is no snow.
Alex Priestley forecasts that there will be a lot less snow in Scotland in the future

Annette and others know that variability only too well. During the Covid pandemic there was a bumper covering of snow, but no-one was allowed out to use it.

It is a situation that is still hard for her to deal with now. While Annette says she understood the need to keep the population safe, she feels poor decisions were made by those in power, with regard to letting people into the fresh air and onto the slopes.

Like many others, she is determined to carry on her father's legacy and build on the success of the past, but the long-term climate forecast is bleak if the industry is to survive in its current form.